F1 Singapore Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Could Red Bull really be in for a tougher weekend?
Red Bull has not to win a race at some point this season… right? Max Verstappen has won 10 straight races and Red Bull has won all 14 races so far this season, but if there is a type of race that Red Bull would struggle in, it could be this weekend in Singapore.
Verstappen has said Red Bull won’t have its strongest weekend at the Marina Bay Street Circuit. That could be true. Red Bull is dominant in straight line speed and Singapore has a whopping 19 turns, although that’s down from 23 after Sector 3 was redesigned ahead of this year’s race. That type of track should be bad for Red Bull and Ferrari and better for the likes of Mercedes and Aston Martin.
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It’s all relative though. Red Bull doesn’t need to be on a perfectly suited track to win. Verstappen is still -400 (1-to-4) on BetMGM to win the race. Those odds are a bit longer than what we’ve seen in recent races, but are still comically dominant odds.
If Verstappen does win, he will be close to clinching the championship. It’s possible he could clinch after Japan, the next race, and downright plausible he could clinch the race after that in Qatar. We ran the numbers on it if you want to go down that rabbit hole.
Does anyone have a chance to pause the Red Bull dominance this weekend? The Athletic’s F1 crew talked about which cars are suited for Marina Bay, how the track ranks visually in F1 and made podium predictions.
Max Verstappen said Red Bull won’t have its strongest weekend in Singapore. Do you believe him?
Luke Smith: Technically, I think he’s correct: Red Bull won’t be as strong as other tracks where it has been utterly dominant. But the team will still be the comfortable favorite and incredibly hard to beat. Even on the other street tracks, like Monaco and Jeddah, it has still been the team to beat, and the car has only got better since then. I really can’t see anyone beating Red Bull here.
Madeline Coleman: I do believe him, but it’s not to say the RB19 won’t be strong. I believe the winning margin will be closer compared to other races because of Red Bull’s rivals, like Mercedes. The Silver Arrows expect to be more competitive this weekend given how its car tends to favor high-downforce circuits. That being said, I do think it’s more likely that the battle for second will continue among the teams rather than someone giving Red Bull a run for its money.
Patrick Iversen: Sure. I believe him. If you dropped me and a lion into Antarctica, I’d believe the lion when he says he’s “not too sure about this.” I also think he’d eat me.
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What teams do you think are well-suited for the 19-turn track in Singapore?
Smith: Aside from Red Bull for all the obvious reasons, I’m expecting Mercedes to be pretty good here. Also keep an eye out for Aston Martin, which performed really well in Monaco. I think it’ll be a rough weekend for Ferrari, perhaps even behind McLaren as well. The car has fared better at the high-speed tracks, Monza being a great example of that, so this could be a tougher weekend for the team.
Coleman: Mercedes because of the track’s high-downforce nature. Trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin explained in a recent team video, “Our performance at the high downforce tracks like at Barcelona, Budapest and even Zandvoort the car was working well, and we’ve had pretty strong performance.” The team scored a combined 33 points, 20 points and eight points, respectively, at those three tracks. However, the Marina Bay Street Circuit brings a bit of an unknown this year because of the redesign. A sequence of four corners have been removed and replaced with a straight in the last sector.
Iversen: I agree with Madeline that Singapore suits the Silver Arrows. I’ll also throw in Aston Martin. Team principal Mike Krack singled out the Marina Bay Street Circuit in August as a hopeful track for the team. “We like the street circuits,” Krack said. “Singapore is one where we really like to be, where I think we can be also quite competitive.” And why not? Aston Martin picked up solid points at Monaco, Spain and Hungary – all high-downforce tracks like Singapore.
Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris and Fernando Alonso have nearly matching odds entering the weekend. How can you separate this group at this point?
Smith: I think it will swing from circuit to circuit. All three have led their respective teams this year, and Hamilton in particular has been brilliant around Singapore in the past – his pole lap in 2018 is one of the best qualifying laps I can remember. It’s a very tight group, and I’d anticipate that to continue not only this weekend, but through the rest of the season.
Coleman: They’re all very different drivers, and the battle behind Red Bull is tight. I’d even throw George Russell into the mix, who is ahead of Lando Norris by 30 points. McLaren is still fairly far back with 115 points compared to fourth-place Aston Martin’s 217, but it is still fairly competitive. Meanwhile, Mercedes is 45 points ahead of Ferrari, which has an 11-point gap to Aston Martin after a 27-point haul at Monza. Those four teams have been fluctuating in performance, as Russell pointed out on Thursday, so it’s truly anyone’s game. He added, “ I think it is that battle for P2 on the road, but you’re going to have to nail every single detail because it’s going to be by the smallest of margins.”
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Iversen: By track, honestly. In addition to the driver differences, the strengths and weaknesses between their cars vary quite a bit, too. Case in point: Aston Martin was uncompetitive last race in Monza, while Ferrari excelled on the full-throttle track. Those roles will probably reverse this weekend. Mercedes’ car is still too draggy but seems to love high-downforce tracks like Singapore. The McLarens can look super-quick but loathe slow corners (though they have an upgrade to address that this weekend). “Fluctuate” is the perfect word for this group.
Where does Singapore rank among the best-looking settings in F1 for you?
Smith: It’s up there. I really enjoy coming to Singapore, it’s one of the most vibrant cities in Southeast Asia, and it’s definitely the most spectacular night race on the calendar, with respect to Jeddah and Abu Dhabi. Those overhead shots of the track lit up in the center of the city are among the best in F1.
Coleman: If we’re just focusing on aesthetics, it’s a top three track for me because of the cityscape and floodlights. Street circuits are always a favorite of mine.
Iversen: This won’t be popular, but it’s pretty low. As far as street circuits go, I think the overhead shots at Jeddah have it beat, and there’s just more architectural personality on display in Baku and Monaco. The nighttime hides it in Singapore. Anyway, I think I prefer the natural backdrops at tracks like Austria, Zandvoort or Spa.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Singapore?
Smith: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton
Coleman: Verstappen, Hamilton, Norris
Iversen: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton
(Photo of Christian Horner: Michael Potts / BSR Agency / Getty Images)
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